Here are my favorite bets available on DraftKings Sportsbook for Wednesday’s MLB slate.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
Rays -125
EDITOR’S NOTE: Jalen Beeks will start for the Rays on Wednesday vs. the Orioles.
After both teams opened at -110, Tampa has emerged as the favorite of both the public and sharps. As of writing, the Rays have received 80% of the moneyline bets and 98% of the moneyline handle for this game.
That may solely have to do with Dean Kremer being on the bump for Baltimore. While his last outing wasn’t his first quality start of the season, it was a rare occurrence. Outside of the two quality starts Kremer has logging, the Baltimore righty has been bad. In each of his other five starts, Kremer has given up four or more runs.
A big reason for his struggles has been the quality of contact opponents are generating against him. Opponents have posted a 24.3% line-drive rate against Kremer. Furthermore, they have an absurd 36.5% hard-contract rate against him to begin 2023.
For Tampa, Yonny Chirinos is coming off a subpar outing. He gave up three runs over 5 1/3 innings after giving up one run in his previous 14 frames. The right-hander isn’t one to light up an opposing offense, but he doesn’t need to be in order to take on Kramer — especially with the offense Tampa is backing him with.
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cubs -120
These two offenses have fairly similar numbers against left-handed pitching since mid-April. The big difference in this one comes down to the arms they’ll be facing.
Jordan Montgomery is a solid lefty, but he’s only faced one lineup that crushes left-handed pitching. He has been good on the road to start the season, but almost too good. His 0.46 road ERA isn’t sustainable, and his .255 road BABIP also shows luck has been on his side. Also, his 27.8% road strikeout rate is very much elevated from his normal rate — in his three full-length seasons, he’s never had a road strikeout rate above 24%.
Justin Steele has an even lower home BABIP (.242) than the one Montgomery has posted on the road, but it’s little less concerning because of the soft contact Chicago’s lefty is generating. While Steele’s home strikeout rate has taken a hit, opponents have a 25.8% soft-contact rate and 16.7% hard-contact rate against him in Chicago. So, those punchouts are turning into easier outs.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.