Update 3:15 p.m.: Not much movement here as although Joe Duffy has taken on marginally more tickets behind him, the cash being wagered remains basically the same as we get closer to fight time.
Updated betting splits
Joe Duffy: -335 (51% of action, 72% of bets)
Joel Alvarez: +250 (49% of action, 28% of bets)
Two lightweights that haven’t competed in over a year enter the cage tonight as Joe Duffy, an Irish fighter beset by injuries, takes on a Spanish rising star Joel Alvarez live from Fight Island on July 18th on the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night.
Duffy is 16-4, but on the last fight of his seven fight deal with the UFC after a rash of injuries over the last four years. He’s 4-3 in the UFC, but has passed on many fights while healing. Losing his last two outings to James Vick and Marc Diakiese, he hasn’t won a fight since March of 2017. He averages just 2.56 strikes per minute and 0.75 takedowns per full bout.
Alvarez enters with a 16-2 record with 16 stoppages, 14 by submission. He picked up a win over Danilo Belluardo in June of last year for his first UFC victory, but lands just 2.55 strikes per minute himself. At almost 6’3 with a 77’ reach, he should have a length advantage on his 5’10 opponent.
Here are the betting odds and bet splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Joe Duffy vs. Joel Alvarez at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 18th:
Joe Duffy: -335 (50% of action, 65% of bets)
Joel Alvarez: +250 (50% of action, 35% of bets)
Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Joe Duffy vs. Joel Alvarez tonight:
Joe Duffy: $9,300
Joel Alvarez: $6,900
Really not sure how Duffy is getting this kind of respect from the bettors. Duffy only has 61.3 DFS points per fight in his career, and averaged only 18 points in his last two outings. Alvarez is 16-2 with 16 stoppages, 14 by submission. He’s got a huge reach advantage on his opponent. He’s younger, but has two UFC fights under his belt.
Taking Alvarez at such a bargain-basement price might lead to more points you can get with better talent. And there is a chance he can win the fight as the sharp action seems to be saying. If you’re on this fight Duffy for sure appears to be the square side, so there might be outstanding value in Alvarez.
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