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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Johns vs. Jackson at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Brett Johns vs. Montel Jackson at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Brett Johns of Wales and Montel Jackson face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 17, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update 3:20 p.m.: While the cash being wagered is mostly the same, it does look like Montel Jackson is getting fractionally more tickets written in support as we get closer to the start of the Fight Night card.

Updated betting splits

Brett Johns: +170 (26% of action, 17% of bets)
Montel Jackson: -215 (74% of action, 83% of bets)

Two bantamweights looking to get in the mix in the division rankings do battle on Fight Island tonight when Brett Johns takes on Montel Jackson at UFC Fight Night July 18th. But is there odds or DFS value available?

Johns is 16-2 overall, 4-2 in the UFC. “The Pikey” lands only 3.3 strikes per minute, but his 4.29 takedowns per 15 minutes means he’ll want to fight on the mat. Eight of his 16 wins are by submission, including a rear-naked choke of Tony Gravely in January in his last appearance.

His opponent won’t be afraid to grapple either, as Jackson is 9-1 and 3-1 in the UFC. Six of his wins are via stoppage, though five are via KO/TKO, and he averages 4.84 takedowns per 15 minutes himself. The 28-year-old from Milwaukee also won on the same January card as his opponent, defeating Felipe Dias Colares by unanimous decision.

Jackson is 5’10 and with a 75.5 inch reach, so he should have three inches vertically and 4.5 inches horizontally on his opponent.

Here are the betting odds and bet splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Brett Johns vs. Montel Jackson at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 18th:

Betting splits

Brett Johns: +170 (25% of action, 23% of bets)
Montel Jackson: -215 (75% of action, 77% of bets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Brett Johns vs. Montel Jackson tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Brett Johns: $7,100
Montel Jackson: $9,100

Jackson scored an off-the-charts 142 DFS points in his decision win over Dias Colares in January. But he outstruck his opponent 75-7, and had 11 takedowns to zero. That’s unlikely to happen against someone of Johns quality and experience, so there might be a bit of a built-in premium that doesn’t hold up to scrutiny on his price.

Johns scored 110 points in his third-round submission against Gravely but he often trades more than he dominates by the numbers. His prior two wins previous to that were just 85 DFS points each. There doesn’t seem to be a ton of value on either side in this fight, unless you think Johns can pull the upset in which case his salary discount would have value for almost any victory.

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