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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Felipe vs. Spivac at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Carlos Felipe vs. Serghei Spivac at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Carlos Felipe of Brazil and Serghei Spivac of Ukraine face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 17, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update 2:50 p.m.: As we get closer to fight time, more people are backing the Brazilian Felipe. He’s moved from +160 to +140, and his action and bets are up from their status this morning. Also as we add winning method, it shows this fight is really considered up in the air by bettors, but the longer odds for the Moldovan Spivac to knock out his opponent have increased action.

Updated Betting splits

Carlos Felipe: +140 (26% of action, 41% of bets)
Serghei Spivac: -177 (74% of action, 59% of bets)

Winning Method

Felipe vs. Spivac Winning Method

Fights Odds % Handle % Bets
Fights Odds % Handle % Bets
Sergey Spivac By KO, TKO or DQ +450 27% 10%
Sergey Spivac By Submission +260 26% 27%
Carlos Felipe By by KO, TKO or DQ +260 22% 38%
Sergey Spivac By Decision +250 21% 20%
Tie +6600 2% 2%
Carlos Felipe By by Decision +600 1% 3%
Carlos Felipe By by Submission +1400 < 1% 1%

On a card full of guys that could have been jockeys if they chose, at least one pair of heavyweights will get after it when newcomer Carlos Felipe fights Serghei Spivac in the opener from UFC Fight Night from Abu Dhabi tonight. This fight was originally scheduled for UFC 250 but was moved because of the Covid-19 pandemic, but should it be on your betting card or DFS roster?

Felipe is 8-0 in MMA with six stoppages, but has never fought for the same promotion twice. “Boi” is from the state of Bahia in Brazil, and hasn’t fought in almost three years due to a USADA suspension for stanozolol use. He’s been allowed to kickbox, box, and jiu-jitsu, but no cage since May of 2017. The UFC dropped him and re-signed him after his suspension ended, so he’ll make his debut this evening.

Spivac is 10-2 overall with all 10 victories by stoppage, but 1-2 in the UFC. The Moldovan fell via unanimous decision to Marcin Tybura on February 29th in a fight where he was dominated statistically. In his only UFC win over Tai Tuivasa on October 5th of last year, he had six takedowns in eight attempts

Here are the betting odds and bet splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Carlos Felipe vs. Serghei Spivac at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 18th:

Betting splits

Carlos Felipe: +160 (19% of action, 41% of bets)
Serghei Spivac: -200 (81% of action, 59% of bets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Carlos Felipe vs. Serghei Spivac tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Carlos Felipe: $7,800
Serghei Spivac: $8,400

A guy coming off a three-year MMA layoff and making his UFC debut would seem ripe for the picking, as we’ve seen so many fighters not really understand what they’re up against when they get to the highest level of the sport. And Spivac did score 130 points in his only UFC win via a second round submission, but his win over Tai Tuivasa isn’t as impressive when you consider he could be on his way out of the promotion.

There’s a lot of unknown factors that make this one tough. If Felipe comes back in form, he might have value. If he doesn’t, Spivac has shown he can score against lesser opponents. But there might be enough that’s up in the air to let this fight pass when filling out your roster.

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