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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Rua vs. Nogueira at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Rogerio Nogueira at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua of Brazil and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira of Brazil face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 24, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update 3:40 p.m.: “Shogun” Rua continues to be the favored fighter, though a slight amount of more tickets are starting to come in on the underdog Nogueira. Here are the update money line bet splits:

Mauricio Rua: Opened -200, now -190 (89% of handle, 85% of bets)
Rogerio Nogueira: Opened +155, now +150 (11% of handle, 15% of bets)

The winning method table below is also updated.


Two older light heavyweight MMA legends battle tonight when Mauricio “Shogun” Rua faces Rogerio Nogueira as part of UFC Fight Night 14 on ESPN+. This is the third of a trilogy, with Rua winning via decision twice; once in the now-shuttered Pride promotion in 2005, and at UFC 190 in 2015.

Rua first competed in the UFC against Forrest Griffin in September of 2007. The 38-year-old from Curtiba, Brazil is 26-11-1 as a professional, and isn’t often the youngster when he steps in the cage anymore but is tonight. The BJJ specialist averages 2.17 takedowns per bout in the UFC with a 48% accuracy rate. He defeated Lyoto Machida for the UFC championship in 2010, but surrendered it to Jon Jones in March of the following year. Jones still has that belt.

Nogueira at age 44 is 23-9 in his MMA career with 14 wins via stoppage, but just 6-6 in the UFC and never in title contention. He lands just 2.39 strikes per minute, and will be one of the oldest competitors in the modern era of the promotion. His last fight was in May of 2019, where he was knocked out in the first round by Ryan Spann.

Here are the latest betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Rogerio Nogueira at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 25th:

Money line odds with betting splits

Mauricio Rua: Opened -200, now -190 (89% of handle, 82% of bets)
Rogerio Nogueira: Opened +155, now +150 (11% of handle, 18% of bets)

Winning method

Rua-Nogueira Winning method

Winning Method Odds % Handle % Bets
Winning Method Odds % Handle % Bets
Antônio Rogério Nogueira By Decision +600 2% 3%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira By KO, TKO or DQ +375 5% 9%
Antônio Rogério Nogueira By Submission +650 0% 1%
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua By Decision +300 11% 15%
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua By KO, TKO or DQ +162 81% 70%
Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua By Submission +850 0% 1%
Tie +5000 0% 1%

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Rogerio Nogueira tonight:

Mauricio Rua: $9,000
Rogerio Nogueira: $7,200

Rua is certainly the side to play here if you can have him fit under your salary cap as he’s not only younger and more active statistically, he’s already defeated his opponent twice. The issue becomes do you want to pay the premium for a fighter that hasn’t stopped his opponent. The good news for Rua backers here is Nogueira has either won or lost before the judges are needed in his last four fights. DFS players want early endings, and the 44-year-old Nogueira might help facilitate one here.

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