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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Gustafsson vs. Werdum at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Alexander Gustafsson vs. Fabricio Werdum at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Fabricio Werdum of Brazil and Alexander Gustafsson of Sweden face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 24, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update 3:54 p.m.: The lines haven’t moved at all, and the splits ever so slightly. Here are the updated money line bet splits:

Alexander Gustafsson: Opened -360, now -335 (82% of handle, 87% of bets)
Fabricio Werdum: Opened +275, now +260 (18% of handle, 13% of bets)

The winning method table below is also updated, which has seen much more movement.

The heavyweights on the main card tonight at UFC on ESPN 14 are Alexander Gustafsson and Fabricio Werdum live from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi, a showdown of a pair of ranked fighters.

Gustafsson is 18-6 at age 33 with a UFC record of 10-6. He has fought three times to become the light heavyweight champion of the world, but lost all three; twice to Jon Jones, and once to Daniel Cormier. He moves up above here despite being still being ranked #7 at light heavyweight, but came in at 240 lbs. during the weigh-in yesterday.

The native of Stockholm, Sweden is active both in the standup and ground games, with 4.02 strikes per minute landed, and 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes with an 85% takedown defense. Against Anthony Smith in June of 2019 during his last fight, he was ahead on points before being submitted in the fourth round.

Werdum is 42 and first stepped in a UFC octagon in 2007. He’s 23-9 in his career, 9-6 in the UFC, and is the former heavyweight champion of the promotion. He defended the belt once before falling to Stipe Miocic in 2015, who has held the title ever since. The Brazilian is as comfortable on his feet as the mat, landing 3.61 strikes per minute as well as 1.71 takedowns per 15-minute fight.

Despite his #14 ranking he hasn’t won a fight in nearly three years, falling to Alexander Volkov in March of 2018, and Alexey Oleynik 10 weeks ago ago in Jacksonville. He got a suspension reduced by the US Anti-Doping Agency for turning in his fellow fighters for the same crime. That body originally suspended him for two years in April of 2018 for testing positive for trenbolone and its metabolite epitrenbolone.

Here are the latest betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Alexander Gustafsson vs. Fabricio Werdum at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 25th:

Money line odds with betting splits

Alexander Gustafsson: Opened -360, now -335 (82% of handle, 89% of bets)
Fabricio Werdum: Opened +275, now +260 (18% of handle, 11% of bets)

Winning method

Gustafsson-Werdum Winning Method

Fights Odds % Handle % Bets
Fights Odds % Handle % Bets
Alexander Gustafsson By Decision +175 22% 30%
Alexander Gustafsson By KO, TKO or DQ +110 44% 38%
Alexander Gustafsson By Submission +2000 4% 3%
Fabrício Werdum By Decision +800 5% 4%
Fabrício Werdum By KO, TKO or DQ +1000 2% 4%
Fabrício Werdum By Submission +600 23% 19%
Tie +6600 0% 0%

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Alexander Gustafsson vs. Fabricio Werdum tonight:

Alexander Gustafsson: $9,300
Fabricio Werdum: $6,900

Neither of these fighters has stopped anyone since 2017, and both have a balanced attack that goes between ground game and punching. Werdum averages 3.61 strikes a minute and 1.71 takedowns per fight, Gustafsson 4.02 and 1.56. Fighters that are balanced and competent in both the stand up and on the mat often extend fights longer than a DFS player would like. Werdum has only been stopped twice since 2008.

The matchup certainly favors Gustafsson to win, but maybe not to score while doing so. This could be one to avoid on your roster.

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