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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Esparza vs. Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Carla Esparza vs. Marina Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night.

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker v Till Weigh-in Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update 3:57 p.m.: It appears most of the late money has come in on the favored Whittaker as we get closer to fight time. Here are the updated money line bet splits:

Carla Esparza: Opened +134, now +145 (23% of handle, 38% of bets)
Marina Rodriguez: Opened -167, now -182 (77% of handle, 62% of bets)

A winning method table below has also been added.


The inaugural strawweight champion of the UFC women’s division faces an undefeated opponent tonight at UFC on ESPN 14 when Carla Esparza takes on Marina Rodriguez live from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi.

Esparza won the first-ever women’s champion at 115 lbs. in the UFC, but lost to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her first defense in 2015. Now ranked #7 at strawweight, she’s a grappler with 3.28 takedowns per three rounds average. With seven stoppages on her 16-6 career record, “Cookie Monster” has won her last three fights including a split decision over Michelle Waterson on May 9th in the UFC’s return in Jacksonville.

Rodriguez is 33, and has never been defeated with a 12-0-2 record. The Brazilian earned her way onto the card via Dana White’s Contender Series, and is 2-0-2 with a pair of majority draws since joining the UFC in 2018. A striker that averages 5.6 blows per minute, she has six stoppages on her resume.

Here are the latest betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Carla Esparza vs. Marina Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 25th:

Money line odds with betting splits

Carla Esparza: Opened +134, now +145 (24% of handle, 50% of bets)
Marina Rodriguez: Opened -167, now -182 (76% of handle, 50% of bets)

Winning method

Esparza-Rodriguez Winning Method

Fights Odds % Handle % Bets
Fights Odds % Handle % Bets
Carla Esparza By Decision +162 6% 23%
Carla Esparza By KO, TKO or DQ +1800 1% 1%
Carla Esparza By Submission +1800 39% 60%
Marina Rodriguez By Decision +105 39% 60%
Marina Rodriguez By KO, TKO or DQ +550 42% 10%
Marina Rodriguez By Submission +850 1% 1%
Tie +5000 5% 1%

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Carla Esparza vs. Marina Rodriguez tonight:

Carla Esparza: $7,600
Marina Rodriguez: $8,600

Rodriguez is getting late action, and certainly has the ability to stop a fighter with six career early endings, but she’s yet to do it in the UFC where the opponents tend to be more talented. Esparza looked terrific in her last outing against ‘Karate Hottie” Michelle Waterson, but only has 71.6 DFS points per victory in her last three wins, all by decision. This might be one to avoid for fantasy purposes.

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