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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Oliveira vs. Sobotta at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Alex Oliveira vs. Peter Sobotta at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Alex Oliveira of Brazil and Peter Sobotta of Poland face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island on July 24, 2020 in Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Update 4:10 p.m.: While the line hasn’t moved, more of the late action has come in on the underdog Sobotta.

Alex Oliveira: Opened -177, now -182 (56% of handle, 59% of bets)
Peter Sobotta: Opened +140, now +145 (44% of handle, 41% of bets)


The second of two welterweight showdowns on the main card at UFC on ESPN 14 tonight might not take long when Brazil’s Alex Oliveira battles Germany’s Peter Sobotta on Fight Island from Abu Dhabi.

“Cowboy” Oliveira is 21-8-1 with two no contests at age 32. He’s been one of the most active fighters on the UFC roster since joining in 2015, with a 10-6-1 record in the promotion. The Brazil comes through in his statistics, with a 2.88 takedown average per 15 minutes in the octagon. After falling in three straight he defeated Max Griffin in March, and has still earned his way on the main card here.

Sobotta is a 33-year-old German with a 4-2 UFC record since his recent return to Dana White’s octagon. He had an 0-3 mark his first time in the promotion in 2009-10. At 17-6 overall with 15 stoppages, he’s another fighter that’s not afraid of the mat with 1.76 takedowns per full bout. He lost his last fight with Leon Edwards on March 17th, a contest that was stopped with just one second remaining.

Here are the latest betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Alex Oliveira vs. Peter Sobotta at UFC Fight Night from Fight Island on July 25th:

Money line odds with betting splits

Alex Oliveira: Opened -177, now -182 (67% of handle, 63% of bets)
Peter Sobotta: Opened +140, now +145 (33% of handle, 37% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Alex Oliveira vs. Peter Sobotta tonight:

Alex Oliveira: $8,700
Peter Sobotta: $7,500

It’s often the case with Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners that they struggle to score fantasy points. The DFS scoring system favors overwhelming stoppages not technical fighting, and when two grapplers go back-and-forth on the mat for awhile it can be hard to get points.

That’s not the case for Sobotta, as he’s averaged 109 DFS points in his last three UFC wins. His activity is overwhelming for a mat-based fighter, so you’ll absolutely want him on some rosters to protect against a fast stoppage of which he is extremely capable. Consider it insurance for an underdog that’s capable of getting a win in a hurry and impressively.

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