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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Prachnio vs. Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Marcin Prachnio vs. Mike Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Marcin Prachnio of Poland and Mike Rodriguez face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on August 21, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

UPDATE 2:50 pm: Below we’ve added bet splits for the method of victory for Prachino vs. Rodriguez tonight.

To be honest, it’s a pretty weak fight for a main card at light middleweight at UFC on ESPN this evening when Marcin Prachnio takes on Mike Rodriguez live from Las Vegas and UFC Fight Night

Prachnio is 13-4 as a cagefighter, but 0-2 in the UFC where he’s been stopped in the first round twice by Sam Alvey and Magomed Ankalaev. The 32-year-old from Poland hasn’t fought since September of 2018, and might need a win to stay a part of the promotion. He’s landed a total of 18 strikes with zero takedowns in his 7:32 of UFC octagon time. And he’s a reasonable underdog to...

Rodriguez who is 10-4-1 with a 1-2-1 mark in the UFC. The no contest was a loss to John Allan overturned by the Nevada State Athletic Commission for a doping violation. In his last outing in Korea in December, he was stopped in 64 seconds by Da-Un Jung. “Slo Mike” (yes, that’s his listed nickname) has landed 4.30 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, and is yet to attempt a takedown. But all 10 of his career wins are finishes, with eight KO’s and two submissions.

Here are the betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Marcin Prachnio vs. Mike Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on August 22nd.

Betting splits

Marcin Prachnio: +188 (61% of action, 57% of bets)
Mike Rodriguez: -240 (39% of action, 43% of bets)

Method of Victory

Prachnio vs. Rodriguez Method of Victory

Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Mike Rodriguez By KO, TKO or DQ -134 77% 14%
Marcin Prachnio By KO, TKO or DQ +450 22% 86%
Mike Rodriguez By Submission +1400 < 1% < 1%
Marcin Prachnio By Submission +1600 < 1% < 1%
Mike Rodriguez By Decision +500 < 1% < 1%
Marcin Prachnio By Decision +450 0% 0%
Tie +6600 0% 0%

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Marcin Prachnio: $7,300
Mike Rodriguez: $8,900

The action on Prachino shows that the stats don’t necessarily line up with his quality as a fighter. His UFC losses are to two very good fighters in Sam Alvey and Magomed Ankalaev, and that’s what the handicappers are seeing. But for someone that hasn’t been in the octagon for almost two years, it’s a lot to take an underdog here. And Rodriguez has outstanding power, but got insta-stopped his last time out and the no contest was basically a loss.

There might be a solid an angle here, but the prices seem quite fair to us so we’re staying away from this one.

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