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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Agapova vs. Dobson at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Mariya Agapova vs. Shana Dobson at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Mariya Agapova of Kazakhstan and Shana Dobson face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on August 21, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

By far the biggest favorite according to the bookmakers since the UFC returned from Covid-19, Mariya Agapova takes on Shana Dobson at UFC Fight Night on ESPN+ on Saturday, and is likely end it quickly in the women’s flyweight division.

Agapova is 9-1 in MMA and got a huge upset win over Hannah Cifers in her UFC debut on June 13th in just 162 seconds. At 5’6 and 23-years-old from Kazakhstan, she has seven finishes in her nine wins, with the only blemish on her record a unanimous decision loss to Tracey Cortez at Dana White’s Contender Series. Her submission of Cifers was a flawless rear-naked choke, and she gets a much easier opponent here.

Dobson is 3-4 in MMA, and is the winner of the Ultimate Fighter 26 finale in December of 2017 via knockout for the only stoppage of her career. Winless since in the UFC at 0-3, the 31-year-old from Arlington, Texas has been outstruck in her last two fights 116-38, and got knocked out in 40 seconds by Priscila Cachoeira on February 23rd. She might need a miracle just to stay under contract with Dana White.

Here are the betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Mariya Agapova vs. Shana Dobson at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on August 22nd.

Betting splits

Mariya Agapova: -1430 (45% of action, 70% of bets)
Shana Dobson: +750 (55% of action, 30% of bets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Mariya Agapova vs. Shana Dobson tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Mariya Agapova: $9,300
Shana Dobson: $6,800

At that price you need a first round stoppage, and that’s what Agapova should give you. If she can choke out Hannah Cifers that fast and score 117.5 DFS points in the process, she should be able to do the same tonight. It’s worth the overpay here as long as you’re assured of a bit over triple digits, and you’re likely good to take the favorites and flip coins on the undercard tonight.

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