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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Minus vs. Semelsberger at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Carlton Minus vs. Matthew Semelsberger at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Carlton Minus and Matthew Semelsberger face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on August 21, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Two welterweights making UFC debut fight second at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on Saturday in Carlton Minus and Matthew Semelsberger, live on ESPN+ starting at 7 p.m.

Minus’s nickname is “Clutch” and so far it’s been appropriate as he’s 10-1-1 in MMA. The 27-year-old from Anchorage has mostly fought in the Alaska Fighting Championship promotion, with his only defeat came from Rick Story in the Professional Fighters League in August of 2018. His last outing was a unanimous decision win over Schon Ellis on February 26th.

Semelsberger is 6-2 in MMA, winning each of his last three in three different promotions; Cage Fury Fighting, Maverick MMA, and Art of War. At 27-years-old from Fredericksburg, Maryland, “Semi The Jedi” has five career stoppages, four by knockout, and fights out of Clinch Academy. He KO’d out Richard Patishnock in just 2:14 on February 8th in his last bout.

Here are the betting odds and bet splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Carlton Minus vs. Matthew Semelsberger at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on August 22nd.

Betting splits

Carlton Minus: -118 (18% of action, 45% of bets)
Matthew Semelsberger: -106 (82% of action, 55% of bets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Carlton Minus vs. Matthew Semelsberger tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Carlton Minus: $8,500
Matthew Semelsberger: $7,700


I got nothing here. One guy leaves The Last Frontier and gets stopped immediately, the other seems to fight randomly and everywhere. If you believe in sharp action guiding fights, getting Semelsberger below par via DFS when he’s the favorite on the money line of course implies value.

But otherwise, your guess is likely good as mine here. And mine isn’t very good.

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