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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Ankalaev vs. Cutelaba at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Magomed Ankalaev of Russia and Ion Cutelaba of Moldova face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on August 28, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

A light heavyweight rematch after a controversial finish highlights the UFC’s main card in Las Vegas on Saturday as #14 Magomed Ankalaev faces Ion Cutelaba during UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas.

In of the more bizarre UFC finishes ever on February 29th, referee Kevin MacDonald stopped the fight, but immediately Cutelaba snapped to and said he was just luring Ankalaev in. That’s led to this “immediate” rematch, originally scheduled for UFC 249 (canceled by pandemic) before Cutelaba tested positive for Covid-19 at UFC 252.

Ankalaev is 13-1 as an MMA fighter, and 4-1 in the UFC. Another in the long line of UFC roster members that are from Dagestan, Russia, he has eight career KO’s in his 13 victories, including two straight stoppage wins. Ranked #13 at 205 lbs., Ankalaev lands 3.46 strikes per minute but only has two takedowns in nearly 45 minutes of octagon action.

Cutelaba is 15-5, 4-4 in the UFC, and averages 5.29 strikes per minute and 2.59 takedowns per full 15-minute fight. At 6’1 from Moldova, he’ll be two inches shorter than his opponent, but with the same reach. “The Hulk” is 26 years of age, and has won 14 of his 15 bouts by stoppage, including 12 by knockout.

Here are the betting odds and bet splits at DraftKings Sportsbook for Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on August 29th.

Betting splits

Magomed Ankalaev: -335 (55% of action, 75% of bets)
Ion Cutelaba: +250 (45% of action, 25% of bets)

Here are the fight outcome splits for Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba tonight:

Ankalaev vs. Cutelaba

Outcome Odds Handle Bets
Outcome Odds Handle Bets
Ion Cutelaba By Submission +2000 3% 2%
Ion Cutelaba By Decision +1100 4% 3%
Tie +6600 1% 1%
Magomed Ankalaev By Decision +275 5% 5%
Ion Cutelaba By KO, TKO or DQ +350 19.0% 15%
Magomed Ankalaev By Submission +1200 18% 11%
Magomed Ankalaev By KO, TKO or DQ -115 49% 63%

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Magomed Ankalaev: $9,000
Ion Cutelaba: $7,200

If you really think Cutelaba was luring in his opponent last time, there’s massive value here. “The Hulk” averages 113 DFS points when he wins, which is reasonably often. He’s a big underdog here, but if he can find a win it’s likely via a finish as the more exciting fighter. There’s for sure more value with Cutelaba considering the circumstances of the first fight for sure.

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