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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Smith vs. Rakic at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Anthony Smith and Aleksandar Rakic of Austria face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on August 28, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Two top-10 fighters at light heavyweight fight this Saturday as the main event of UFC Fight Night on ESPN when #5 Anthony Smith duels with #8 Aleksandar Rakic live from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.

“Lionheart” Smith is the well-worn veteran at 33-15, with a UFC mark of 8-5. But his record is partially shaped by being in the cage with Jon Jones, Shogun Rua, Rashad Evans, and plenty of other superstars. He lands just 3.41 strikes per minute and 0.45 takedowns per bout, but has s earned a Performance of The Night bonus in each of his last three wins in the octagon.

Rakic has taken the UFC by storm, will be in the title picture at light heavyweight with a win, and is a big favorite despite the rankings. He’s 4-1 in the UFC and 12-2 overall, and his only UFC loss is a split decision in December of last year with Volkan Oezdemir that was certainly controversial. He lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute in the octagon, and 1.20 takedowns per full bout.

Here are the betting odds at at DraftKings Sportsbook for Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on August 29th.

Betting splits


Anthony Smith: +225 (80% of action, 52% of bets)
Aleksandar Rakic: -278 (20% of action, 48% of bets)

Outcome Splits

Smith vs. Rakic

Outcome Odds Handle Bets
Outcome Odds Handle Bets
Anthony Smith By Decision +450 8% 5%
Anthony Smith By Submission +900 36% 21%
Aleksandar Rakić By Submission +1800 3% 2%
Aleksandar Rakić By KO, TKO or DQ +105 14% 27%
Tie +6600 0.20% 1%
Anthony Smith By KO, TKO or DQ +750 12% 7%
Aleksandar Rakić By Decision +240 28% 37%

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Anthony Smith: $7,500
Aleksandar Rakic: $8,700

Rakic will be looking for the stoppage here, and him being just +105 to score it with a salary less than $400 over average is a good spot for his backers. With an average score of 112 DFS points per win in his last three victories, and an opponent that won’t be afraid of contact, we very much like Rakic as the value play here.

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