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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Means vs. Staropoli at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Tim Means vs. Laureano Staropoli at UFC Fight Night.

Tim Means poses on the scale during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on August 07, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

The rare double rainbow of weight misses collide when Tim Means faces Laureano Staropoli at UFC Fight Night on Saturday live from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. Both fighters came in over the weight limit for welterweight, so normally a fraction of their purse would be forfeited to their opponent, but in this case we’re really not sure what happens. We do know both will be ineligible for any Fight of The Night or other performance bonuses.

Means is 29-12 and plays gatekeeper here. With an 8-7-1 record in the promotion and 24 career stoppages (19 by KO or TKO), “The Dirty Bird” brings an exciting style landing 4.87 strikes per minute, and when he does lose it’s often just as exciting. He has two Performance of The Night bonuses on his promotion resume.

Staropoli is 9-2 in MMA, and 2-1 in the promotion. Originally scheduled to fight Kalinn Williams on March 28th before Covid-19, the Argentine makes his first appearance since falling to Muslim Salikhov in October of last year. Though he has seven career stoppages, all three of his UFC fights have gone the distance, and he lands 4.29 strikes per minute with only one career takedown in 45 minutes in the black octagon.

Here are the betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook for Tim Means vs. Laureano Staropoli at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on August 8th.

Betting splits

Tim Means: +114 (78% of action, 45% of bets)
Laureano Staropoli: -141 (22% of action, 55% of bets)

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Tim Means vs. Laureano Staropoli tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Tim Means: $7,900
Laureano Staropoli: $8,300

Staropoli would be a value play according to the money line, but his lack of DFS scoring (53.8 points per fight) in three UFC matches means there’s probably other places on the card to find value. If Means can score the quick KO that’s great, but he might have had a rough camp if he’s still trying to make weight here.

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