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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Waterson vs. Hill at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill at UFC Vegas 10 on ESPN+.

Opponents Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 11, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

The main event of UFC Vegas 10 is now women’s strawweights as #8 Michelle Waterson takes on #13 Angela Hill live in Las Vegas and on ESPN+.

“The Karate Hottie” Waterson enters with a 17-8 record in MMA, and a 4-4 mark in the UFC. The 34-year-old has dropped her last two bouts to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Carla Esparza both by decision. In the octagon she lands 3.31 significant strikes per minute as well as 1.68 takedowns per 15-minute bout. Of her 17 career wins, 12 are via stoppage with nine KO/TKO’s and three submissions.

Hill heads to the top of the card for her fourth fight in 2020. With a 12-8 career record and a 6-8 mark in the UFC, the 35-year-old from San Diego had won three in a row before a split decision loss to Claudia Gadelha on May 16th. One of the most active fighters on the roster she averages of 5.76 significant strikes per minute landed and 0.47 takedowns per three rounds.

This fight went from the co-main to main event when Glover Teixeira tested positive for Covid-19 ahead of his bout with Thiago Santos, so it’s a five-round affair and the only 25-minute maximum event on the card.

Here are the latest betting odds at at DraftKings Sportsbook for Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on September 12th

Betting splits

Michelle Waterson: +110 (42% of action, 36% of bets)
Angela Hill: -134 (58% of action, 64% of bets)

Outcome Splits

Waterson-Hill Winning Method

Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Angela Hill By Decision +125 52% 34%
Angela Hill By KO, TKO or DQ +700 25% 23%
Angela Hill By Submission +1200 2% 8%
Michelle Waterson By Decision +188 1% 5%
Michelle Waterson By KO, TKO or DQ +1200 9% 8%
Michelle Waterson By Submission +550 10.4% 23%
Tie +6600 0.0% 0%

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Michelle Waterson: $8,000
Angela Hill: $8,200

This fight just seems to have everything working against it for fantasy players. Waterson doesn’t score very well even when she wins (average of 75 DFS points in her last three wins). And although Hill’s activity has value, but she’s facing a fighter that has gone the distance in her last six fights.

Hill can be a play because her stats combined with five rounds provides value, and the unknown factor of neither fighter ever seeing a fifth round in their career. But there might be better value elsewhere on the card.

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