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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Green vs. Patrick at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Bobby Green vs. Alan Patrick at UFC Vegas 10 on ESPN+.

Opponents Bobby Green and Alan Patrick of Brazil face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 11, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Two veteran lightweights hit the octagon on Saturday for UFC Las Vegas 10 as Bobby Green faces Alan Patrick. The bout was in jeopardy as Rodrigo Vargas withdrew from the event for undisclosed reasons, but Green steps in and becomes a big favorite.

34-year-old Bobby “King” Green already has two victories this year, defeating both opponents by unanimous decisions. He’s 26-10-1, and averages 5.22 significant strikes per minute across his Affliction, Strikeforce, and UFC appearances dating back to 2009. Green’s wins are spread out with nine coming from submission, nine from decision and eight from knockout.

Alan Patrick enters the octagon at 37-years-old with a 15-2 record, nine of those 15 coming via submission. Patrick is a southpaw that typically lives on the ground, averaging just under four takedowns per fight.

Here are the latest betting odds at at DraftKings Sportsbook for Bobby Green vs. Alan Patrick at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on September 12th:

Betting splits

Bobby Green: -240 (97% of action, 80% of bets)
Alan Patrick: +188 (3% of action, 20% of bets)

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Bobby Green: $9,100
Alan Patrick: $7,100

There’s a premium for the veteran Green, which makes sense with his big stats activity and odds. But he also doesn’t have a stoppage since June of 2016, and although both of Patrick’s losses are by KO, he’s still 15-2 and with a 5-2 record in the UFC. If you’re going to pay the big tax, there’s probably better places on this card to do it.

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