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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Araujo vs. De La Rosa at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Viviane Araujo vs. Montana De La Rosa at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Viviane Araujo of Brazil and Montana De La Rosa face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 04, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

A pair of ranked women’s flyweights are on the preliminary card at UFC on ESPN 9 Saturday when #8 Viviane Araujo faces #12 Montana De La Rosa live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Araujo is 8-2, and 2-1 since joining the UFC. Her last bout was a unanimous decision loss to Jessica Eye in December, but prior to that she had won five straight by stoppage. With seven finishes on her resume, the 31-year-old from Brazil’s Federal District averages 4.51 strikes per minute and 2.57 per 15 minutes of octagon time. “Vivi” fights out of Cerrado MMA, and missed a scheduled August 1st bout due to testing positive for Covid-19.

Montana is one-half of the power couple of the UFC roster, as her husband is bantamweight Mark De La Rosa. At 11-5 with a 4-1 mark since joining the UFC in December of 2017. With eight career stoppages all by submission, De La Rosa averages 2.30 strikes per minute, and 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes in the octagon. Based in Fort Worth, Texas and Team Takedown, she defeated Mara Romero Borella by unanimous decision on February 15th in her last fight, and earned the Performance of The Night bonus for her armbar of Nadia Kassem in February of 2019.

Here are the betting odds at at DraftKings Sportsbook for Viviane Araujo vs. Montana De La Rosa at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on September 5th:

Betting splits

Viviane Araujo: -182 (82% of action, 77% of bets)
Montana De La Rosa: +145 (18% of action, 23% of bets)

Winning Method Splits

Here are the splits for the method of victory for Viviane Araujo vs. Montana De La Rosa on Saturday:

Araujo-De La Rosa

Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Viviane Araujo By KO, TKO or DQ +570 51% 10%
Montana De La Rosa By Submission +700 24% 16%
Viviane Araujo By Decision +140 13% 50%
Viviane Araujo By Submission +500 7% 8%
Montana De La Rosa By Decision +225 3% 12%
Tie +5000 1% 4%
Montana De La Rosa By KO, TKO or DQ +1400 0% 0%

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Viviane Araujo vs. Montana De La Rosa tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Viviane Araujo: $8,800
Montana De La Rosa: $7,300

“Vivi” Araujo only has one stoppage in the UFC, and scored just 44 points in her loss to Jessica Eye. She’s the small favorite here, but the play might be De La Rosa, who has yet to be stopped in a UFC octagon and has a 75.7 DFS average with her 2-1 record. It’s a great way to save some value for a fighter that can for sure win this bout on the right evening, especially if she can get it on the mat.

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