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What betting splits, DFS advice tell us about Smith vs. Azure at UFC Fight Night

We break down the last-minute bet splits and make some DFS picks for Cole Smith vs. Hunter Azure at UFC Fight Night.

Opponents Cole Smith and Hunter Azure face off during the UFC Fight Night weigh-in at UFC APEX on September 04, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Two bantamweights with 1-1 UFC records will open the evening at UFC on ESPN 9 Saturday night as Cole Smith takes on Hunter Azure live from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.

Smith is 7-1 as an MMA professional, losing to Miles Johns by split decision for his first loss on September 14th, 2019. The Vancouver, BC native averages just 1.63 significant strikes per minute during his two distance bouts in the black octagon, and has three total takedowns. “The Cole Train” is 31-years-old and fights out of Team Quest Thailand.

Azure enters at 8-1 career, falling to Brian Kelleher on May 13th via second-round KO in his last outing. The Montana native has four finishes on his resume, three by knockout. He’s fought at featherweight previously, but drops to 135 for here and made weight with seeming ease. The 28-year-old brings much more activity, averaging 4.71 strikes per minute as well as 1.55 takedowns per full fight. He defends shots at grounding attempts 81% of the time as well.

Here are the betting odds at at DraftKings Sportsbook for Cole Smith vs. Hunter Azure at UFC Fight Night from Las Vegas on September 5th:

Betting splits


Cole Smith: +185 (16% of action, 21% of bets)
Hunter Azure: -235 (84% of action, 79% of bets)

Winning method splits

Here are the splits for the method of victory for Cole Smith vs. Hunter Azure on Saturday:

Smith-Azure

Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Hunter Azure By KO, TKO or DQ +400 33% 14%
Hunter Azure By Decision +105 28% 62%
Cole Smith By KO, TKO or DQ +1400 19% 12%
Hunter Azure By Submission +800 14% 3%
Cole Smith By Decision +320 5% 4%
Tie +5000 1% 3%
Cole Smith By Submission +750 0% 1%

Here are the DraftKings DFS salaries for Cole Smith vs. Hunter Azure tonight:

DraftKings DFS Salaries

Cole Smith: $7,100
Hunter Azure: $9,100

It seems like a lot of price to lay on Azure, who only scored 59 points in his UFC win, and 31 in his loss. There’s plenty of activity here, but it doesn’t seem to be translating to DFS points so far, though his dropping to 135 is a good sign for bettors. There’s likely better value with other favored fighters in other places, and better bargains to be had than Smith despite his small price as well.

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