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How the public is betting UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal

We discuss a few fights on UFC’s first event with fans in 14 months, live from Jacksonville’s VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena.

Kamaru Usman of Nigeria and Jorge Masvidal face off during the ceremonial UFC 261 weigh-in at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena on April 23, 2021 in Jacksonville, Florida. Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC

Mixed martial arts returns to having crowds in the USA on Saturday night as Jacksonville’s VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena plays host to UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal.

There are 13 fights total on the card, with the main event a rematch of Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal for the UFC welterweight championship.

We make some picks for the card and add some odds and bet splits from DraftKings Sportsbook as well below:

Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal

No surprise Masvidal is a big underdog here, but he did go the distance last time despite taking the fight on about one week’s notice. Usman isn’t known for his stopping power, so we could be looking at a repeat of the previous outcome where it goes the distance yet again.

It’s really hard to see a path forward for Masvidal that doesn’t involve a stoppage, so we’re in for Masvidal at +400 for the KO/TKO/DQ stoppage simply for value. It’s unlikely to come in, but it’s on the board.

Odds to win

Jorge Masvidal +355: 43% of handle, 42% of bets
Kamaru Usman -500: 57% of handle, 58% of bets

Winning method

Usman-Masvidal Winning Method

Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Jorge Masvidal By KO, TKO or DQ +400 33% 28%
Kamaru Usman By Decision -139 19% 24%
Tie +6600 2% 3%
Kamaru Usman By KO, TKO or DQ +275 28% 25%
Kamaru Usman By Submission +1400 6% 8%
Jorge Masvidal By Decision +1200 8% 9%
Jorge Masvidal By Submission +1400 3% 5%

Weili Zhang vs. Rose Namajunas

Zhang might be the most under-appreciated MMA fighter in the world, but her dominance is incredible. Combined with Namajunas’s wide-open style, and it seems the judges won’t be necessary for this one. We’ll grab both Zhang by KO, as well as Namajunas by KO, and hope neither of them submits or grinds out a victory over 25 minutes. There’s too good a price here, and one unit on Namajunas for every three on Zhang equates to a nice payday.

Odds to win

Rose Namajunas +165: 39% of action, 38% of bets
Weili Zhang -200: 61% of action, 62% of bets

Winning method

Zhang-Namajunas Winning Method

Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Weili Zhang by Submission +1400 5% 6%
Rose Namajunas By Decision +375 10% 16%
Rose Namajunas By KO/TKO/DQ +600 12% 13%
Weili Zhang by Decision +150 14% 24%
Weili Zhang by KO/TKO/DQ +250 48% 29%
Rose Namajunas By Submission +700 10% 11%
Tie +5000 1% 1%

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Andrade

We’re not haters, we’re just doubters. Andrade has lost two of her last three fights, though her stoppage win over Kaitlyn Chookagian via kicks showed she has stopping power. But this is Shevchenko, the best female not named Amanda Nunes in the world.

If forced, we’ll take Shevchenko by stoppage, which is for sure the square option on the table. But it’s likely we’ll sit this one out and hope another woman emerges to challenge Valentina at some point. Perhaps her sister?

Odds to win

Jessica Andrade +350: 15% of action, 15% of bets
Valentina Shevchenko -455: 85% of action, 85% of bets

Winning method

Shevchenko-Andrade Winning Method

Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Outcome Odds % Handle % Bets
Jessica Andrade By Decision +900 4% 2%
Jessica Andrade By Submission +1200 3% 3%
Tie +6600 1% 1%
Valentina Shevchenko By KO, TKO or DQ +195 55% 43%
Jessica Andrade By KO, TKO or DQ +600 10% 8%
Valentina Shevchenko By Submission +550 7% 8%
Valentina Shevchenko By Decision +138 20% 36%

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