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Mixed martial arts returns to having crowds in the USA on Saturday night as Jacksonville’s VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena plays host to UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal.
There are 13 fights total on the card, with the main event a rematch of Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal for the UFC welterweight championship.
We make some picks for the card and add some odds and bet splits from DraftKings Sportsbook as well below:
Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal
No surprise Masvidal is a big underdog here, but he did go the distance last time despite taking the fight on about one week’s notice. Usman isn’t known for his stopping power, so we could be looking at a repeat of the previous outcome where it goes the distance yet again.
It’s really hard to see a path forward for Masvidal that doesn’t involve a stoppage, so we’re in for Masvidal at +400 for the KO/TKO/DQ stoppage simply for value. It’s unlikely to come in, but it’s on the board.
Odds to win
Jorge Masvidal +355: 43% of handle, 42% of bets
Kamaru Usman -500: 57% of handle, 58% of bets
Winning method
Usman-Masvidal Winning Method
| Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
| Jorge Masvidal By KO, TKO or DQ | +400 | 33% | 28% |
| Kamaru Usman By Decision | -139 | 19% | 24% |
| Tie | +6600 | 2% | 3% |
| Kamaru Usman By KO, TKO or DQ | +275 | 28% | 25% |
| Kamaru Usman By Submission | +1400 | 6% | 8% |
| Jorge Masvidal By Decision | +1200 | 8% | 9% |
| Jorge Masvidal By Submission | +1400 | 3% | 5% |
Weili Zhang vs. Rose Namajunas
Zhang might be the most under-appreciated MMA fighter in the world, but her dominance is incredible. Combined with Namajunas’s wide-open style, and it seems the judges won’t be necessary for this one. We’ll grab both Zhang by KO, as well as Namajunas by KO, and hope neither of them submits or grinds out a victory over 25 minutes. There’s too good a price here, and one unit on Namajunas for every three on Zhang equates to a nice payday.
Odds to win
Rose Namajunas +165: 39% of action, 38% of bets
Weili Zhang -200: 61% of action, 62% of bets
Winning method
Zhang-Namajunas Winning Method
| Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
| Weili Zhang by Submission | +1400 | 5% | 6% |
| Rose Namajunas By Decision | +375 | 10% | 16% |
| Rose Namajunas By KO/TKO/DQ | +600 | 12% | 13% |
| Weili Zhang by Decision | +150 | 14% | 24% |
| Weili Zhang by KO/TKO/DQ | +250 | 48% | 29% |
| Rose Namajunas By Submission | +700 | 10% | 11% |
| Tie | +5000 | 1% | 1% |
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Andrade
We’re not haters, we’re just doubters. Andrade has lost two of her last three fights, though her stoppage win over Kaitlyn Chookagian via kicks showed she has stopping power. But this is Shevchenko, the best female not named Amanda Nunes in the world.
If forced, we’ll take Shevchenko by stoppage, which is for sure the square option on the table. But it’s likely we’ll sit this one out and hope another woman emerges to challenge Valentina at some point. Perhaps her sister?
Odds to win
Jessica Andrade +350: 15% of action, 15% of bets
Valentina Shevchenko -455: 85% of action, 85% of bets
Winning method
Shevchenko-Andrade Winning Method
| Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Odds | % Handle | % Bets |
| Jessica Andrade By Decision | +900 | 4% | 2% |
| Jessica Andrade By Submission | +1200 | 3% | 3% |
| Tie | +6600 | 1% | 1% |
| Valentina Shevchenko By KO, TKO or DQ | +195 | 55% | 43% |
| Jessica Andrade By KO, TKO or DQ | +600 | 10% | 8% |
| Valentina Shevchenko By Submission | +550 | 7% | 8% |
| Valentina Shevchenko By Decision | +138 | 20% | 36% |
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